The Compute Theory Broke in Half

Nico has followed Yann LeCun for years and says that three or four years ago the arguments lined up. Two of them he now reads as broken in half: that compute is the ceiling, and that piling more compute behind these systems was never going to get there. On the power figure, his recollection is that LeCun put it at something like a terawatt, and he says that one broke to pieces. His reasoning is the timeline. By his read we are close to AGI, it has not been long, and nobody has put that much more power behind these things.